Impacts of High-Latitude Climate Change on Ecosystem Services and Society

Integrating local knowledge and downscaled climate projections, our study documents the effects of global-scale climatic variables on the local availability of ecosystem services important to the resilience of rural Alaskan communities.  As part of the Arctic social-ecological system (SES) rural Alaskans rely substantially on ecosystem services such as moose, salmon, and marine mammals for subsistence, cultural identity, and community livelihood.   However, this SES is undergoing dramatic changes, many of which are attributable to the magnified effects of climatic warming at high latitudes.  As a consequence, the availability of resources like moose and salmon may be shifting.  Establishing a baseline understanding of the relationships between climate and the ecosystem services that form the foundation of resilience in rural communities is critical to begin planning for and adapting to changing future conditions in the Arctic SES.

We are conducting semi-structured interviews with local hunters and fishers of four rural Alaskan villages to document local perceptions of how environmental variables affect the availability of important ecosystem services. Using a modeling framework, we are creating future scenarios of ecosystem service availability based upon local knowledge and climate projections.   In addition, we are developing models derived from science inputs to compare and potentially combine with local knowledge inputs.  This allows us to assess, from several perspectives, how a critical component of community resilience may change in the future.  Model outputs will be used to facilitate discussions in the communities on adaptation options that could minimize the negative consequences while seizing upon positive opportunities.

 

Project Goals

1. Document the relationships between climatic variables and the availability of important ecosystem services according to local communities.
2. Project future scenarios of availability by spatially representing those relationships.
3. Assess how critical components of community resilience may change in the future.
4. Explore community driven ways in which residents may adapt to future changes in availability of ecosystem services.

Project Outcomes

Brinkman, Todd J., Shauna BurnSilver, Gary Kofinas, Terry Chapin, and Scott Rupp. 2010. Subsistence Resource Availability Project Venetie, Alaska: Documenting Local Knowledge on the Status and Trends in Availability of Subsistence Resources. Community Progress Report. Unpublished.

Brinkman, Todd J., Winslow D. Hansen, Terry Chapin, Scott Rupp, Shauna BurnSilver, and Gary Kofinas. 2010. Subsistence Resource Availability Project Fort Yukon, Alaska: Documenting Local Knowledge on the Status and Trends in Availability of Subsistence Resources. Community Progress Report. Unpublished.

Brinkman, Todd J., Winslow D. Hansen, Terry Chapin, Scott Rupp, Shauna BurnSilver, and Gary Kofinas. 2010. Subsistence Resource Availability Project Wainwright, Alaska: Documenting Local Knowledge on the Status and Trends in Availability of Subsistence Resources. Community Progress Report. Unpublished.

Brinkman, Todd J., Winslow D. Hansen, Terry Chapin, Scott Rupp, Shauna BurnSilver, and Gary Kofinas. 2010. Subsistence Resource Availability Project Kaktovik, Alaska: Documenting Local Knowledge on the Status and Trends in Availability of Subsistence Resources. Community Progress Report. Unpublished.

Links

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning
SNAP provides downscaled climate projections for application to environmental and socio-economic research and policy planning applications.
http://www.snap.uaf.edu/

Location: Alaska, United States

System Type: Forest/woodland,Tundra

Contact: Todd J. Brinkman, Winslow D. Hansen

Collaborators: F. Stuart Chapin III; T. Scott Rupp; Shauna BurnSilver; Gary P. Kofinas

Organization: University of Alaska Fairbanks

Project Dates: 2008-Present

Keywords: Alaska; climate change; ecosystem services; social-ecological systems; rural communities; boreal forest; Arctic; subsistence; adaptation planning