| BASELINE | 1: ANAHEIM NORTH | 2: WALLEYE COMMONS | 3: NORTHWOODS QUILT | 4: REFUGEE REVOLUTION |

The NHLD Scenarios were developed for the Northern Highlands Lake District in Wisconsin. Members of the RA, and others, have met for several years to assess the past and current conditions in the NHLD. In March, 2002, the RA presented a short course on Theories for Sustainable Futures: Understanding and Managing for Resilience in Human-Ecological Systems in Northern Wisconsin in Minocqua, Wisconsin (http://limnology.wisc.edu/course/). A second workshop ("Envisioning Futures of the Northern Highland Lake District") was held in September, 2002 to develop scenarios about the NHLD that would explore alternative visions for the future of the region (http://limnology.wisc.edu/nhld/). Through the short course, workshop, and other conversations, many NHLD residents and visitors have contributed to the scenarios.

Four different scenarios were developed for the NHLD: Anaheim North, Walleye Commons, Northwoods Quilt, and Refugee Revolution. Each scenario grows out of from a shared baseline story, which summarizes events from 2002 - 2007. Then, each scenario traces a different sequence of events until 2027. The storylines are described as if looking backward from the year 2030.

Click here to read the baseline to the four scenarios

The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin (NHLD)

The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin (NHLD) is in rapid transition. Such big transitions have happened before. Twelve thousand years ago as glaciers receded, lakes were formed. Archeological evidence suggests that humans began to inhabit the region soon thereafter. Huge animals, such as woolly mammoths, disappeared early in the era that we’ve labeled the Age of Discovery. Through the fur trade, Europeans entered the region about 500 years ago during the Age of Rediscovery. Following the arrival of Europeans, native populations decreased significantly, while newcomers took ownership of the land. Entering into the Age of Development, humans logged the forests to provide timber for the growing cities south of the NHLD.

Now we are entering a new age, in which woolly mammoths have been replaced by mammoth homes. Currently, the number and size of lakeshore buildings is expanding. At the same time, increasing numbers of recreational visitors are creating unprecedented pressures in the region. Property values are at an all-time high, with an increasing number of second homes, but few desirable areas left for new construction. Some people welcome the economic benefits of tourism, while others believe it interferes with their traditional Northwoods way of life. Tensions have risen over land use and shoreline management. Recreational activities continue to expand, ranging from quiet sports like fishing and canoeing to motor sports such as boating and ATV use. Warmer, shorter winters with less snow impact the tourism industry as well as the region’s ecosystems. Invasive species and emergent diseases also threaten the quality of the environment in the region.

Many changes in the NHLD are happening simultaneously. This makes them more difficult to understand. With so many changes happening at once, it seems hard to think about the future in a cohesive way. The scenarios presented here are one attempt to think about the possible futures of the NHLD.

Looking toward the future: What are Scenarios?

Humans are set apart from the rest of the animal world by our ability to learn how to learn. The word “learn” implies acquiring knowledge through study, practice, or instruction. Many scientists believe that this ability enables us to think ahead so that we can make decisions about what to do today. We try to anticipate the future when making decisions, but plans are always contingent on unexpected changes. We’ve all been surprised by something unexpected, and likely we will be surprised by unknown future events. Not knowing the future carries risks. How do we account for surprises that we cannot possibly predict? To reduce some of the risks associated with uncertainties, ”looking ahead” has become formalized through a process called scenario planning.

Scenario planning began after WWII as a type of war game analysis. Scenario planning later became a part of business planning. The oil company Royal Dutch/Shell further developed scenario planning, which played a role in that company’s success during and after the world oil price crises in the 1970s. More recently, scenarios have been used in global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (www.millenniumassessment.org). Scenario planning has also been used during the transition to democracy in South Africa, and in community planning exercises in the USA, Europe, and Asia.

Scenarios have been useful in business planning, global problem-solving, and community development, but why use this approach in the NHLD? Remarkably, there have been few attempts to use scenarios to address ecological issues. The NHLD is one of the first projects of this type and will provide an important foundation for future ecology-based scenarios. More importantly, scenarios can help the people of the NHLD to think about how the region might best develop. There is a need for creative approaches to consider and plan for the future of the region. Scenarios help organize information, and they are easy to understand . Scenario planning is also a good way to open discussion among different groups of people who might not otherwise interact. Scenarios allow us to consider many possible futures instead of trying to predict a single result. These possible futures are not likely to come true exactly as described in the scenarios, but they let us think in broader terms about the impacts of the plans and choices we make.

For more information on the NHLD see also:

Peterson, G. D., T. D. Beard Jr., B. E. Beisner, E. M. Bennett, S. R. Carpenter, G. S. Cumming, C. L. Dent, and T. D. Havlicek. 2003. Assessing future ecosystem services: a case study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin. Conservation Ecology 7(3): 1. [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol7/iss3/art1

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