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E & S Special Feature
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The following is an appendix to the Ecology and Society
Special Feature Exploring
Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems
Case Studies in Resilience: Fifteen Social-Ecological
Systems across Continents and Societies
Brian Walker1
and Rochelle L. Lawson
1CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
- Introduction
- Causse Méjan, France
- Coral reefs of the Caribbean
- Dry Spiny Forests,
Southern Madagascar
- Everglades, Florida, USA
- Gorongosa National Park,
Mozambique
- Goulburn-Broken Catchment,
Australia
- Kristianstads Vattenrike,
Sweden
- Mae Ping River Basin, Thailand
- Maine Fisheries, USA
- Malinau Region, Borneo
- Northern
Highland Lakes District, Wisconsin, USA
- Phoenix, Arizona, USA
- Rangelands of New South Wales,
Australia
- South-East Lowveld, Zimbabwe
- Western Australian
Wheatbelt, Australia
- Acknowledgments
INTRODUCTION
The 15 social-ecological systems presented in this paper as case studies
have been the subjects of research by members of the Resilience Alliance.
Some have been studied for many years and have a wealth of detailed information.
Others studies have only been started in the past three years. All of them,
however, consider the social-ecological system they are concerned with at
multiple scales and examine the feedbacks within and between the social
and ecosystem domains. The insights from comparing these case studies are
the basis for the papers in this Special Issue on Exploring Resilience
in Social-Ecological Systems. Summaries of the case studies are presented
here as a reference for the special issue.
The case studies are distributed across the world (Fig. 1) and represent
a wide range of ecosystems, management regimes, and resilience issues. They
range in extent from the small open grassland system of the Causse Méjan
in France to the expansive rangelands of New South Wales in Australia (Table
1), and from lakes in northern Wisconsin and southern Sweden to the Caribbean
coral reefs. The range of social systems and resource-use types is correspondingly
broad. The various ways in which they differ, or are the same, in terms
of their patterns of dynamics are presented in the main body of papers.
The final paper, "Fifteen Weddings and a Funeral," presents the major insights
these case studies have provided.
Each case study was written by a lead scientist who has studied that social-ecological
system; their contact e-mail addresses are given under each title. The case
study summarizes the geographic and economic context, recent changes to
the system, and the key issues for resilience. The 15 case studies are presented
in alphabetical order.
CAUSSE MEJAN, FRANCE
Michel Etienne, Etienne@avignon.inra.fr;
Francois Bousquet, bousquet@cirad.fr
Context
Located in the southeastern part of the Massif Central, the mountain range
of central France, the Causse Méjan is a limestone plateau 800–1250
m high cut off from the surrounding plateaux by deep canyons. A long land-use
history of grazing and cereal cropping plus the peculiar rainfall and temperature
conditions of transition between mountain and Mediterranean climates have
led to a unique ecosystem of high biological diversity linked with typical
open landscapes. Ecosystem diversity is totally dependent on grazing activities.
Because of the karstic system, no permanent water is available.
In the 18th century, rye and wheat, and mutton and wool were dominant. The
first half of the 19th century saw a wool market crisis, and milk production
for cheese became dominant in the second half. There was a concentration
of cheese production into the Roquefort industry between 1900 and 1950.
Pine reforestation began in the 1970s, along with intensification of sheep
farms on arable lands. Tourism developed as a consequence of the creation
of a national park.
Today there are three big private forest owners, five municipalities grouped
into a communal community, eight hunting societies, and 40 sheep farmers,
of whom 40% produce milk for the Roquefort industry, 30% produce milk for
a local ewe cheese, and 30% raise lamb for meat.
Changes to the system
Sheep farmers require a combination of arable land and steppic grasslands,
depending on the farming system used. Many flatland habitats have been destroyed
for agriculture, although many of the grasslands have been retained. However,
pine trees from neighboring reforestations or native forest stands are invading
the grasslands.
Half of the sheep farmers submit to the national park regulations, which
include restrictions on building rights, architectural style, and environmentally
friendly farming.
The challenges include conserving the grassland habitats, keeping alive
the Causse culture and traditions, encouraging environmentally friendly
farming, ensuring the valuation of corresponding products, and preventing
soil degradation.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
Key vulnerabilities of the system are new social groups, e.g., forest owners,
secondary residents, who pressure for other forms of natural resource management;
the dynamics of the landscape itself; and the encroachment of pine, which
is favored by current sheep-herding and tree-planting practices.
There are extensive social links among the members of the local population,
who identify strongly with the Causse region. Labor and knowledge are freely
shared among farmers, which is a source of resilience. Also, the plant and
animal species are perfectly adapted to grazing management as the result
of a long co-evolution process between habitat dynamics and farming.
CORAL REEFS
OF THE CARIBBEAN
Terry Hughes, terry.hughes@jcu.edu.au
Context
This case study encompasses all the coral reefs in the Caribbean region,
approximately 2,754,000 km2 in area. There is considerable variation
in their ecologies as well as the socioeconomic conditions in the 25 territories
that govern the islands.
Changes to the system
Coral reefs worldwide are in serious decline, mainly because of overharvesting,
pollution, disease, and climate change. The collapse of many Caribbean coral
reefs was preceded by long periods of dwindling fish stocks and increased
nutrient and sediment runoff from land. By the 1950s, when modern studies
of reef ecology began, a single species of sea urchin was keeping macro-algal
blooms at bay. In the 1970s, a disease outbreak spread throughout the Caribbean,
and sea urchin numbers fell by two orders of magnitude, precipitating macro-algal
blooms that still persist.
Several critical functional groups are missing or represented by only a
handful of species. There are, for example, no three-dimensional bottlebrush
species and just one staghorn (Acropora cervicornis) and one tall,
tubular coral (Acropora palmata). These are the dominant habitat-creating
functional groups on healthy reefs. Until recently, the two species comprised
more than 30–50% of the total coral cover. Today, many areas have
effectively lost not only these two species, but also two critical functional
groups and two major shallow-water reef habitats.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that, long before the widespread
loss of coral cover, many Caribbean reefs were on an unrecognized trajectory
to collapse. The ecological symptoms included loss of macro-fauna, reduced
fish stocks, a shift from fish- to echinoid-dominated herbivory as the ecological
role of herbivorous fishes was increasingly replaced by a single species
of echinoid, destructive overgrazing and bioerosion by food-limited sea
urchins, and reduced coral recruitment. Today, remnant coral populations
are further affected by increasingly prevalent coral disease and climatically
induced coral bleaching.
Several key functional groups have been identified. Functional redundancy
is widely assumed but rarely demonstrated. So far, response diversity has
been recorded only at the phylum level. For example, on overfished reefs,
echinoids can replace fishes as the major herbivores.
Some processes exhibit scale dependency. Reorganization of reefs following
phase shifts is lengthy and poorly understood. Reefs exhibit numerous alternate
states. Their resilience to overfishing, terrestrial inputs, global warming,
bleaching, and disease remains to be determined.
Adaptability has yet to be effectively addressed. The focus to date has
been on quantifying change, although the study of mechanisms and processes
is gaining support. Linking social and ecological domains is proceeding
rapidly with a shift in management goals, but it is often constrained by
the potential mismatch between legislation and implementation.
A current focus on No Take Areas and hotspots may detract from the provision
of improved management measures for the vast majority of reefs that are
heavily impacted by people. Unless regional-scale active management of critical
functional groups to support reef resilience can be achieved, then small-scale
successes within No Take Areas or by individual countries may be unable
to stem the decline of the reef systems as a whole.
DRY
SPINY FORESTS, SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
Thomas Elmqvist, thomase@ecology.su.se
Context
The dry spiny forest in Androy, southern Madagascar, is dominated by the
endemic plant family Didiereaceae and listed as one of the 200 most important
eco-regions in the world. Androy has the highest level of plant endemism
at both the generic and the species level in Madagascar. The area covers
20,000 km2.
People settled the area in about AD 1000, and the population increased until
the mid-14th century. At that time the climate changed, conditions became
more arid, and large parts of the area were abandoned. People and cattle
returned 200–300 yr later. The Tandroy, the "People of the Thorn Bush,"
inhabit a large area of the spiny forest. They are mainly cattle herders
but also grow crops that include cassava, beans, millet, and maize.
Within villages, there are different spheres of authority governing the
use of natural resources. The most important are the customary laws and
associated local institutions regulating forest use, including the taboo
system related to clans and lineages. The increasing importance of Christianity
often results in local tensions with the traditional belief system. At the
regional level, the Forest Office implements and enforces government regulations
affecting forest resources.
Changes to the system
Landscapes have changed either because of the fragmentation and loss of
forest in areas scattered throughout northern Androy or because of rapidly
regenerating forests in north-central Androy. The loss of forest is driven
by locally insecure tenure systems that grant land rights to farmers who
convert forest to agricultural lands. Regeneration is the result of the
large-scale out-migration of people and cattle because of the deteriorating
climate and periodic famines. The stability of the dense forest patches
in the south is supported by strong informal institutions that provide efficient
protection of forest patches considered sacred.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
Sources of vulnerability include tensions between Christianity and customary
institutions and between government policies and local informal institutions.
In the highly fragmented landscape, the loss of a few key patches may substantially
reduce connectivity, with important consequences for crop production, e.g.,
pollination services.
Sources of resilience include a strong social capital and the large capacity
of spiny forests to regenerate.
Two major policy shifts have recently been introduced in Madagascar. Firstly,
Madagascar will increase the protected area estate from 1.7 to 6 x 106
ha, some 10% of the land area, in the next 5 yr. Second, the government
seeks to decentralize forest management in an effort to secure local management
of natural resources, including biodiversity. How theses policies are implemented
in Androy will have important implications for its social and ecological
resilience.
EVERGLADES,
FLORIDA, USA
Lance Gunderson, lgunder@emory.edu
Context
The Everglades is an internationally recognized wetland ecosystem in the
U.S. state of Florida. Its renown derives from its wealth of biotic heritage
and the magnitude of the threats it faces. It is the lower third of a large
hydrologic system that also includes the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee.
The Everglades historically covered an area of 10,520 km2.
At 10,000 yr of age, the system is geologically new, and current development
began a century ago. In 100 yr, the population has exploded from 30,000
to 6 x 106.
During the 20th century, the system was partitioned into agricultural, recreational,
and conservation land uses by means of a water control system of levees,
canals, and pumps. Federal, state, and local governments and a large number
of nongovernmental groups manage the system.
Changes to the system
Land use and past management have changed two aspects of the hydrology:
water quality and quantity, in particular the volume and timing of flooding.
This has resulted in a loss of resilience in the wetland ecosystem, manifested
as changes in freshwater marsh vegetation from oligotrophic, e.g., sawgrass,
to eutrophic, e.g., cattails, and a decline in nesting wading birds.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The history of water management has been one of ecological crises, i.e.,
loss of resilience and ensuing state change, that trigger institutional
reformation and realignments. Leadership has been key in moving the system
through periods of crisis and reformation. Responses to perceived ecological
crises have been large-scale, expensive, and technologically based solutions.
The adaptive capacity of the system is attributed to large capital infusions
from federal and state governments
The Everglades network has a high institutional diversity both numerically
and functionally. The network is dominated by government agencies and formal
policies. It has developed into a formal, closed network. The management
system is in a hierarchy trap. The existing complex of institutions and
actors has maintained an ongoing conflict over water use for at least 40
yr. This conflict has been stable and persistent, and provides an example
of a perversely resilient social system.
GORONGOSA
NATIONAL PARK, MOZAMBIQUE
Tim Lynam, tim.lynam@csiro.au
Context
Gorongosa National Park is located in the middle of Mozambique and covers
an area of 3760 km2.
There are approximately 10,000 people living in nine communities within
the park boundaries; however, there are no schools, clinics, or other facilities
for them. These people are a major concern for park management.
Changes to the system
The park is famous for its large herbivore and carnivore populations, which
were decimated during and after the war of independence in the 1980s. The
birdlife was largely unscathed by the war, and the park is home to some
500 species.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
Gorongosa National Park offers a challenging opportunity to influence the
development of one of the prime protected areas in southern Africa. It is
surrounded by a conceptual buffer zone in which land use is supposed to
be restricted, but there is little capacity in the form of human or financial
resources to enforce existing legislation.
The major social-ecological issues include:
- the availability of the human and financial resources needed to ensure
that the park is developed and is not perceived to be a net cost to
the state and region;
- the political will to address the core issues of people living in
parks and the conflicts between local community needs and conservation
goals; and
- possible changes in the hydrological regime associated with land-use
or land-cover changes on or around Gorongosa Mountain.
GOULBURN-BROKEN
CATCHMENT, AUSTRALIA
Paul Ryan, paul.ryan@csiro.au
Context
Situated in southeastern Australia, the Goulburn-Broken Catchment (GBC)
is a subcatchment of the Murray River, Australia’s longest and most
important river system. Covering approximately 2.5 x 106
ha (120 x 200 km), the GBC extends northward from the forested uplands in
central Victoria to expansive riverine plains along the Murray River. The
climate is temperate, with annual rainfall ranging from 1200 mm in the southern
uplands to less than 450 mm on the sparsely vegetated plains.
The GBC was occupied by Aboriginal people for at least 10,000 yr prior to
the arrival of Europeans in the 1830s. The European population escalated
rapidly following the discovery of gold in the 1850s. Irrigation commenced
in the catchment in the 1880s, and heavy investment in the irrigation infrastructure
continued through the 1950s. Irrigated dairy and horticultural production
and processing now underpin the regional economy, with minor contributions
from the remaining land uses of cropping, grazing, forestry, and tourism.
Changes to the system
The clearing of more than 70% of the native vegetation cover and the introduction
of irrigation have substantially altered the hydrological balance of the
catchment. Groundwater levels have risen rapidly, bringing deep salt deposits
to the surface and affecting agricultural production, ecological values,
and infrastructure.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
In the irrigation region, groundwater levels have risen 30–50 m as
a result of clearing native vegetation and implementing irrigation projects.
Climatic variation, i.e., wetter or drier periods, affects water use by
vegetation and groundwater recharge, causing the groundwater level to fluctuate
close to the critical threshold for plant production. In contrast, severe
droughts create fodder shortages and increase farm debt. The dependence
of the regional economy on irrigation means that the system is highly vulnerable
to climate change.
Unfavorable terms of trade for traditional agricultural products and the
demand for life-style farming properties have resulted in substantial change
in land use and the structure of local communities in the dry-land areas.
The dry-land mid-catchment contributes grains, fodder, and agistment for
the adjacent dairy industry. Disturbances such as drought or market shocks
may be important to the resilience of both dry-land and dairy systems.
The dry-land areas deliver significant salt and nutrient loads to the waterways,
commanding a large proportion of the allowable discharge quotas for the
catchment to the Murray River. Future groundwater control options in the
irrigation area may therefore be limited by the amount of salt that can
be put into the river.
The increasing demand for water for nonconsumptive uses in the upper catchment
conflicts with established property rights to water in the irrigated areas
of the lower catchment, reducing the options available to control salinity
and nutrient inflows in the upper catchment.
KRISTIANSTADS
VATTENRIKE, SWEDEN
Carl Folke, calle@system.ecology.su.se
Context
Kristianstads Vattenrike (Kristianstad Water Realm) is a semi-urban area
in southeastern Sweden. It covers 1100 km2
of the lower catchment area of the Helgeå River and the coastal region
of Hanö Bay within the Municipality of Kristianstad, which is inhabited
by 75,000 people. Much of the area is agricultural land. Ecosystem services
include filtering nutrients to the coastal area of the Baltic Sea, providing
recreational opportunities, sustaining and enhancing biological diversity,
and maintaining the cultural heritage of the landscape. The area was identified
as one of international importance by the Ramsar Convention of Wetlands
in 1974 and is a UNESCO Man and Biosphere Reserve.
The size of the lake and wetland area has been considerably reduced because
of embankments and other measures taken over four centuries to increase
the amount of arable land and to prevent flooding. The management of the
wetlands was transformed toward ecosystem management in 1989 when Ecomuseum,
a municipal organization, was formed as a result of a self-organizing process
among key individuals representing different sectors. The perception of
Kristianstad as “water-sick” was changed to “water-rich,”
which translates to “Vattenrike.” There are about 20 local stewardship
associations as well as several landowners, local firms, and schools directly
involved in ecosystem monitoring, restoration, and management projects in
the area.
Changes to the system
Important drivers include urbanization, policy change, e.g., the European
Union's agricultural policy and the Water Framework Directive, and climate
change. Kristianstad is rapidly emerging as a center for eco-tourism, mainly
bird watching and fishing, which also contributes to the change of identity.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The downward trend in the water quality of the wetlands has been reversed
thanks to the work of the Ecomuseum. The transformation toward a desired
trajectory, i.e., ecosystem management, has been successful so far and enjoys
broad political support. However, the system is still vulnerable to changes
in property rights and agricultural policy. Ecomuseum is trying to build
resilience into the new management regime and secure the gains from informal
collaboration by converting valuable and vulnerable land into nature reserves.
This kind of institutionalization is a key strategy to reduce vulnerability
and build adaptive capacity.
Ecomuseum is using its increased legitimacy to tackle the harder challenges
of flooding and eutrophication, both of which require “scaling-up”
responses. As the lowest city in Sweden, Kristianstad is extremely vulnerable
to flooding. Its dependence on upstream municipalities has not yet resulted
in collaboration, although the new Water Directive will require this. The
implementation of the Directive provides a great opportunity for ecosystem
management at the catchment level (4775 km2)
if the trust building and adaptive capacity that are emerging within Kristianstad
are expanded to upstream municipalities. However, a top-down approach to
implementation may erode this process.
MAE PING
RIVER BASIN, THAILAND
Louis Lebel, llebel@cmnet.co.th
Context
The Mae Ping River Basin is one of the major tributaries feeding into the
Chao Phraya river system, which drains most of northern Thailand and meets
the sea near Bangkok. The basin covers 34,000 km2.
The region is undergoing very rapid development. The area contains a large
proportion of the remaining forested land in Thailand and is of high conservation
significance.
Virtually all the uplands are formerly public lands now under the jurisdiction
of the Royal Forest Department. Many of the communities of several hundred
thousand people existed prior to the declaration of the various national
parks and forest reserves, but their land-use systems and tenure claims
have not been recognized by the government.
Traditionally, the upland hill tribes practiced various forms of shift cultivation,
from sedentary settlement patterns with rotation crops to highly mobile
short-use long-fallow rotations. In recent times, the scope for traditional
shifting agriculture has been constrained because of land shortages.
Changes to the system
Forest cover has declined substantially, and intensive agriculture is producing
uniform agricultural landscapes. The area under irrigated orchard cultivation
has increased, and fallow periods in upland rotational systems are becoming
shorter. There has been an almost complete removal of large mammal species,
as well as significant declines in the numbers of birds, fish, and other
animals.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The collapse of large game populations and restrictions on access to higher-quality
forest and agricultural areas are causing nutrition-related health disorders
in the remote poorer communities. The increased demand for water use in
irrigation systems is leading to conflicts over water at various scales.
MAINE FISHERIES,
USA
Jim Wilson, jwilson@maine.edu
Context
The New England Fisheries Management Region is located off the northeast
coast of the United States. The region’s northern border is the maritime
boundary between the United States and Canada; its southern boundary is
the New York bight. The Maine/Downeast area is located in the northernmost
portion of the region.
The area has rich and abundant marine life. Fishing has been the basis of
the local economy since before European settlement. The most important species
harvested today are lobster, scallops, shrimp, herring, and a variety of
groundfish including cod, haddock, and flounder.
Changes to the system
Fishing pressure increased during the early 20th century until a near collapse
of the groundfish industry in 1970. In 1977, the United States, along with
most other maritime nations, extended its fisheries jurisdiction to 200
miles. Catch increased to a peak in the 1980s and has been steadily declining
ever since. The result is a thoroughly depleted groundfish complex, with
lobster and scallops more robust. In Downeast Maine, the depletion of groundfish
has been particularly severe and persistent. Of the several hundred boats
that used to groundfish out of Downeast communities, only two remain.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The realization that current management of the fisheries does not take into
account the behavioral complexity and spatial heterogeneity of fish populations
led to a proposed “area-based management regime” in the Downeast
portion of the New England region. The proposal arises from new scientific
understanding about the localization, or finer scale, of groundfish adaptations
and an expanded appreciation for the system-wide drivers of population abundance.
This new understanding points to a severe mismatch between biological and
social, i.e., management, scales, leading to strong incentives to hit and
run or “pulse fish” local stocks. Over time, this kind of selective
fishing appears to have substantially reduced system resilience by eroding
ecosystem structure and function. Consequently, the objectives of the proposal
are to match the scale of fishing to the scale of the stocks, i.e., move
to management on a finer scale, and to manage the stocks for more than population
size alone.
The proposal defines a 3-yr transition period during which a local governance
regime will be developed, the fishery will be operated as a large-scale
scientific experiment, and fishing will be restricted to specific areas
and gear types.
MALINAU REGION,
BORNEO
Bruce Campbell, b.campbell@cgiar.org
Context
Located in the northeastern corner of Indonesian Borneo, Malinau officially
came into existence as a district in October 1999 following the partition
of the expansive Bulungan district. The Malinau district encompasses 42,000
km2, an area the size of the Netherlands,
and is populated by approximately 35,000 people, more than half of whom
are concentrated in and around the river town of Malinau, the district’s
administrative centre. Malinau is land-locked in the region’s interior
and stretches along much of the original district’s western border
with Sarawak.
In contrast to much of East Kalimantan, which has been heavily logged since
the early 1970s, Malinau still has extensive forest resources, with 95%
of the district’s land area officially classified as Forest Estate.
Poor governance and corruption permeate most facets of life from the village
to the national level. At the village level, disempowered social institutions
have now been forced to grapple with rapid and dramatic social and political-economic
transformations. With respect to the forests specifically, there is an underlying
tension between villagers who want development that improves their livelihoods,
especially with regard to health, education and cash income, district officials
and local businessmen who want to log the forest, and an international environmental
community that wants to maintain a forested landscape, yet lacks actionable
commitments to do so, e.g., environmental service payments.
Changes to the system
The area has undergone rapid change in the last decade. New roads have opened
up, the mining industry has expanded, decentralization has shifted the balance
of power and introduced many new actors in the areans of logging and governance
arena, and there has been high immigration as a result of new opportunities.
Shortly after Indonesia’s decentralization laws were passed in mid-1999,
small-scale logging became rampant throughout Indonesia and especially in
Malinau, because the district is close to timber markets in Malaysia. This
has resulted in extraordinarily high levels of intense, unsustainable timber
extraction and conflict.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
Key slow variables are population density and road density. The key fast
variables are the benefit-cost ratio for plantation and agricultural crops;
the benefit-cost ratio of timber harvesting; governance related to natural
resource issues, i.e., positive change takes time, whereas collapse can
happen quickly; and fire frequency.
There are four possible system states. The first is the “pre-decentralization”
state in which access to and the use of forest resources are heavily regulated
by an authoritarian regime, i.e., the Primary Forest State. The second state
is one in which plantations dominate the landscape; this Plantation State
assumes that markets for these products can be created and, more importantly,
sustained. The third state is one in which degraded forests dominate the
landscape because of rapid intense exploitation with short time horizons,
the Degraded Forest State. It is also assumed that the relative remoteness
of Malinau will mean the lack of markets for alternative agricultural and
plantation crops, thus limiting widespread plantation development. The fourth
state is Recovered Forest, which assumes that population levels remain low,
fire never gets into the system, and the Degraded Forest State reverts to
a Recovered Forest State.
NORTHERN
HIGHLAND LAKES DISTRICT, WISCONSIN, USA
Garry Peterson, garry.peterson@mcgill.ca,
Stephen Carpenter, srcarpen@wisc.edu
Context
The Northern Highland Lake District covers 5300 km2
of the extreme northern part of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. It contains
thousands of natural lakes that together comprise more than 13% of the region.
The dominant vegetation is conifer-hardwood forest. Most lakes in this area
are clear, with low amounts of nutrients.
Historically, the area was used for hunting and gathering following the
arrival of Native Americans. The fur trade in the 1800s and timber extraction
that ended in the 1920s followed. From the 1920s onward it has been viewed
as pristine wilderness, and management has focused on protection and promotion
of the region as a “wilderness” tourist destination.
Important regional actors include natural resources agencies, Native American
tribes, other property owners, participants in outdoor recreation, and groups
such as realtors, construction companies, and tourism operators that encourage
economic development. Stakeholders have widely divergent views on how the
region is developing and should develop.
Changes to the system
Development, which is primarily along lakeshores for tourism or second homes,
is altering the lake ecosystems that are the region’s chief attraction.
The number of permanent residents is about 65,000. Invasive species such
as rainbow smelt, rusty crayfish, and Eurasian milfoil have reduced the
quality of fishing and boating. Features of suburban life, such as chain
stores and traffic jams, are becoming more common.
Natural resource management has been generally slow to adjust to ecological
and social changes. The major management changes have been driven by crises.
For example, the institution of an equitable distribution of fisheries and
wildlife resources between tribal and state users occurred only after a
federal lawsuit was initiated. Similarly, changes in zoning and water regulations
are only occurring after most of the lakeshore has been modified.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The economy is open and exposed to fluctuations, especially those that are
one-dimensional and dependent on tourism. There is a low endogenous capacity
to diversify.
Disease and invasive species pose a threat to the system. Climate variability
may have an impact on recreation opportunities and ecological disturbance.
Known thresholds in the system include eutrophication, the collapse of dispensatory
fisheries, trophic cascades, phosphorous levels in soil and sediment, woody
habitat, and the inertia of long-lived predator and tree populations.
Nonreversible thresholds may be some species invasions and a shift from
old-growth timber harvesting to pulpwood rotations.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA,
USA
Ann Kinzig, kinzig@asu.edu,
Charles Redman, charles.redman@asu.edu
Context
Arizona is a U.S. state of diverse local climates and closely juxtaposed
life zones. With less than 178 mm of annual precipitation, the Phoenix metropolitan
area is situated in an arid landscape with concomitant reliance on surface
water or groundwater, a high evaporation rate, and mean monthly temperatures
ranging from 12° Celsius in January to 34° Celsius in July.
The area contains 2955 km2 of highly productive
farmland and about 3.5 x 106 people.
This case study centers on the alluvial plain formed by the Salt-Verde Rivers,
an area of 6400 km2.
Changes to the system
The spectacular growth of the population in the Phoenix area, which has
doubled twice in the past 35 yr, and the rapid and continuing expansion
of the city into former agricultural and desert settings provides a unique
opportunity to monitor human-induced ecological transformations based on
the interaction of climate, stream flow, agricultural practices, land-use
change, and the spread of settlement. There are two forms of transformation
seen in this system: transformation from unproductive desert to irrigated
valley, in AD 500 by a prehistoric group known as the Hohokam and again
in 1867 when the area was first settled by English speakers, and transformation
from a primarily agricultural landscape into an urban, commercial, and industrial
area in about 1970.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
The main source of resilience within the agricultural system appears to
be the ability to reorganize the forms of socio-political control over water.
This occurred both with the Hohokam in ~ AD 1150 and with the farmers of
the Phoenix Basin with the establishment of the Salt River Water Users Association
in 1903. More generally, the ability of the residents to continually redefine
the character of the Phoenix Basin, from agricultural breadbox to mixed
industrial to high-tech industry and state capital, has increased its resilience
to various crises.
In the case of the Hohokam, an increasingly hierarchical sociopolitical
system, formulated in response to one crisis, appears to have reduced the
resilience of the society to subsequent environmental variability, with
the subsequent demise of the Hohokam in ~ AD 1450. The Salt River Water
Users Association, in contrast, was driven from below by farmers, with water
managers remaining, by charter, responsive to the needs of the stakeholders.
The current sources of vulnerability appear to be the potentially too rigid
belief that population growth is a necessary engine for the economic viability
of the city. A prolonged drought could easily cause a cessation of incoming
commercial activity and a loss of current corporate residents.
RANGELANDS
OF NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA
Nick Abel, nick.abel@csiro.au
Context
The rangelands of western New South Wales cover approximately 325,000 km2.
The flat terrain is dissected by numerous ephemeral streams, channels, and
floodplains. Rainfall ranges from less than 150 mm to 450 mm across the
region and is highly variable.
Archeological evidence suggests that Aboriginal people lived in the region
for at least 40,000 yr prior to European arrival during the latter part
of the 19th century. Following the rapid displacement of the Aboriginal
people from their traditional lands and the decline in Aboriginal numbers
from imported diseases, the settlers established grazing operations that
continue today. Current land use is dominated by leasehold pastoralism,
with minor areas under Aboriginal control or used for mining and nature
conservation. The economy is dominated by mining, but the small tourism
industry is growing. The settler population of 52,000 is declining, along
with its social networks; however the Aboriginal population is increasing.
Changes to the system
Surface water is naturally scarce. Kangaroos and livestock are obliged to
graze mostly within a few kilometers of surface water. The construction
of water points for stock has spread grazing into areas in which native
species are not adapted to continuous grazing. Since the 1970s, plastic
piping had made it possible to distribute water more cheaply, and most of
the region is now accessible to grazers all year round. Species susceptible
to grazing have declined, and there has been some movement of soils and
loss of landscape function. The cessation of periodic burning by Aboriginal
people together with the spread of grazing has promoted shrubs that reduce
the productivity of the land for sheep. However, regional stock numbers
and output have been maintained by continuously increasing the number of
water points. The density of sheep within grazing range of water, hence
grazing pressure on the land, has decreased exponentially since the establishment
of water points. When the marginal productivity of additional water points
turns negative in the next few decades, the continuing spread of shrubs
on susceptible soils and the degradation of land close to water by heavy
grazing may reduce pastoral output. However, the falling price for wool
is already reducing sheep numbers, and degradation may be avoided. The pastoral
system would not have evolved into its current form without the combination
of regulation and support it has received from the state and federal governments.
The government of New South Wales intervened to split up the large pastoral
properties established in the 19th century into small and ecologically and
financially unviable holdings, mainly to settle the new colony as densely
as officials thought possible. However, the governments also supported pastoralism
when drought coincided with low wool prices. Thus, pastoralism went through
multiple crises but did not collapse because of its political dominance.
The dominance of pastoralism in the region was established not only through
its economic importance but also because of its symbolic significance in
occupying a colonized land. It is no longer economically important, but
pastoralists remain politically powerful. Their perpetual land leases give
them legal security and economic equity, and drought assistance and fuel
rebates help stave off bankruptcy. The region has reached a threshold at
which the average age of pastoralists is increasing, and many are in financial
difficulty. In addition, the price for wool continues to fall, the land
is filled nearly to capacity with water points, and the political influence
of the pastoralists is waning. Meanwhile, Aboriginal numbers and political
influence are slowly growing, and so is urban support for conservation.
Large changes are likely to occur. One option is for pastoralists to become
stewards of the land, carrying out pest control and fire management to provide
a landscape suitable for tourism and conservation. Another is an increase
in Aboriginal ownership, but, apart from tourism, no economically viable
land use is apparent, and the present owners would have to depend on welfare.
Despite these difficulties, there is great potential for multiple land use,
including conservation, tourism, Aboriginal cultural use, and paid stewardship.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
Recent attempts to introduce multiple land uses and Aboriginal access have
had limited success with the establishment of a small stewardship scheme
in which pastoralists are paid to set aside and manage land for conservation.
Innovation by pastoralists has been handicapped by a ludicrously complex
bureaucratic and legal system. Pastoral conservatism and the quashing of
Native Title rights in a test case have set back Aboriginal aspirations.
However, the trend is toward a threshold at which urban influence will tip
the delicately poised system from its current phase of conservatism toward
phases of reorganization and growth.
SOUTH-EAST
LOWVELD, ZIMBABWE
David Cumming, cumming@icon.co.zw
Context
The South-East Lowveld (SEL) of Zimbabwe covers an area of 57,000 km2
and, lying below the 600 m contour, is characterized by high temperatures,
low rainfall (< 400 mm/yr), and periodic severe droughts and floods.
Apart from irrigation potential in limited areas, the SEL is best suited
to extensive wildlife and livestock production. However, foot and mouth
disease is endemic and places severe constraints on marketing livestock
products. Subsistence dry-land cropping fails in most years because the
growing season is too short or too variable, or both, with the result that
peasant farmers in many communal lands of the SEL have had to receive relief
food aid since the early 1980s.
Historically, Khoisan hunter-gatherers occupied the SEL for thousands of
years until it was settled by Bantu agro-pastoralists in about AD 600. After
the collapse of Mapungubwe in AD 1100, several smaller settlements persisted
along the major rivers, and the area served mainly as a trade route from
the central watershed through to the coast. Tsetse fly, which covered most
of the SEL during the 19th century, was eradicated in 1896–1898 when
the rinderpest pandemic decimated both livestock and wildlife populations
in southern Africa.
Changes to the system
Zimbabwe was colonized by the British South Africa Company (BSAC) in 1890
and gained independence in 1980. The BSAC introduced land apportionment
with designated reserves for the indigenous black population, the retention
of large tracts of Crown Land, and the allocation of land under freehold
title to European settlers. In 1980, the allocation of land in the SEL under
the different tenure regimes was approximately 44% communal land, 44% commercial
farmland, and 12% parks and wildlife land. By 2000, only 13% of the commercial
farmland had been resettled by small-scale farmers, but the “fast-track”
land reform program and compulsory acquisition of land owned by whites,
which started in 2000, has brought about rapid change. The state plans to
acquire all freehold land and introduce a leasehold tenure system.
The human population of the region has increased 20-fold since 1900, during
which time the SEL has been subjected to severe droughts, occasional floods,
outbreaks of animal and human diseases, cycles of upheaval, political tension
and war, and associated economic booms and slumps. The inequitable distribution
of wealth has increased rather than diminished over the last two decades.
Recent (1998–2004) political dynamics within Zimbabwe have resulted
in further major shocks to the linked social and ecological systems of the
SEL. The overriding role and impact of patrimonial political systems, contrasting
land tenure systems, and the resulting parallel narratives between the black
informal sector and the previously largely white, capitalist, formal sector
add to the complexity of this region.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
National macro-economic and policy changes accompanied by an erosion of
law and order and of property and civil rights have resulted in rapid shifts
in land tenure and resource governance. Large areas under commercial agriculture
that were once characterized by cattle ranching, wildlife and tourism, and
irrigation have been converted to small-scale, mostly subsistence agriculture
with accompanying deforestation, sale of fuel wood, and poaching of valuable
game species for bush meat markets. Commercial cattle ranches have all but
collapsed, wildlife tourism has slumped, and sugar production has declined
so sharply that the industry is threatened with nationalization. The northern
sector of the region’s major national park has been invaded by settlers
and cattle. Outbreaks of animal diseases such as foot and mouth disease,
anthrax, and rabies have reached serious proportions, and HIV/AIDS has infected
about 20% of the population.
The region supported a challenging juxtaposition of land tenure and resource
management systems that were moving toward an ordered realignment of sectors
and resources. However, it has now entered an Ω phase with a sharply
declining economy, a marked loss of social capital as a result of HIV/AIDS,
economically driven emigration, a flight of capital investment, and a loss
of valuable natural capital in the form of key wildlife populations. The
resulting back-loop dynamics in terms of release, collapse, and the potential
for reconfiguration have major implications for the resilience and future
development and well-being of the linked social-ecological systems of the
region.
WESTERN
AUSTRALIAN WHEATBELT, AUSTRALIA
Helen Allison, helenallison@ozemail.com.au
Context
The Western Australian Wheatbelt is a band covering 195,000 km2
of the southwest part of western Australia. There are approximately 100,000
people on farms or in small towns throughout the region. The major land
use in the region is broadacre agriculture, and this accounts for more than
90% of the area. Western Australia is recognized internationally for the
incredible biodiversity of its native plants, animals, and ecosystems. The
southwest of the state, for example, is in one of the world’s 25 biodiversity
hotspots because of the large number of species, many of which are endemic,
and the fact that they face significant threats to their continued survival.
Aboriginal society has been present in Western Australia for 60,000–140,000
yr. However, major land-use change occurred in the 20th century following
British colonization in the 19th century. From approximately 5000 farms
in 1900, the number rose to 23,000 in 1968. Since then, the number of farms
has declined, dropping steadily to approximately 9000 farms in 2000. The
reduction in numbers has corresponded with an increase in individual farm
area. The dominant farming system is annual cropping with predominantly
wheat/sheep rotation.
Numerous statutory and nonstatutory policies aimed at controlling natural
resource degradation in agricultural areas have failed to achieve sustainable
natural resource management (NRM). A command-and-control regulatory policy
was in place from the 1890s to the 1990s. The second policy approach was
a voluntary participatory policy encouraging partnerships of institutions
at the catchment, region, state, and national levels. Western Australia
is currently devolving responsibility for the development of NRM strategies
and investment plans to two regional community groups in the Western Australian
wheatbelt, possibly under a new statutory framework.
Changes to the system
The removal of extensive areas of native vegetation, predominantly savannah
woodland, primarily between 1900 and 1990 contributed to a reduction in
biodiversity and also altered the region’s hydrological cycle. Rising
water tables have caused inundation and soil salinity that reduced the area
of productive land by 16% in 2000. It is projected that 33% of the productive
area will be affected by soil salinity within 50 to 300 yr, depending on
the land's geographical location and position in the landscape.
Key vulnerabilities and issues for resilience
In terms of economic production, the region has experienced two sequential
periods of growth and accumulation followed by reorganization and renewal,
and currently is in the back loop, i.e., the reorganization to exploitation
phases, of the adaptive cycle. The dynamics of land-use change from 1900
to 2003 were driven by macroeconomics at the global scale and mediated by
institutions at the national and state scales. The social-ecological system
is composed of relatively fast-moving social and economic variables that
are largely decoupled from the slow-moving ecological variables.
The major social-ecological issues include:
- the three commodity system traps, i.e., resource depletion, environmental
pollution, and social decline;
- continuing pressure to clear the remaining areas of native vegetation,
which further threatens biodiversity;
- slowly emerging ecological processes, such as the altered hydrological
balance, which will reach a new equilibrium between 2030 and 2300;
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