| BASELINE | 1: ANAHEIM NORTH | 2: WALLEYE COMMONS | 3: NORTHWOODS QUILT | 4: REFUGEE REVOLUTION |

Refugee Revolution

Scenario Images: Immediate right: NHLD landscape showing four representative lakes.
Far right: Cutaway views of the four lakes.

The population of the NHLD has increased substantially.

State and federal governments have a greater role in management. Pollution is closely regulated, but has nevertheless increased in many lakes. There are more problems with invasive species, such as rusty crayfish.

Wildlife is still abundant around the more remote lakes, although some species, such as otters and wolves, have disappeared from the NHLD.

Much of the landscape has been converted to working ecosystems, such as forest plantations, cranberry bogs and fish hatcheries. Even some lake fishes are harvested commercially.

The tribes are doing well economically, and have been relatively successful in managing development on tribal lands.

Development is heavy, especially around the lower lakes. There are more buildings and cars. High-density housing is more common. Shopping opportunities have increased, and so has the presence of large retail chains based outside the NHLD.

In April 2010, a private plane flying over Chicago exploded in midair, dispersing two tanks of radioactive dust in a wide cloud across the Loop District. As investigators rushed to the area, uneasiness turned to fear when the dirty bomb was followed by a massive truck bomb that leveled the Chicago Board of Trade. People feared for their safety in population centers of the upper Midwest. Within a few weeks, thousands of owners of second homes started the tourist season early in the NHLD. The population of the NHLD doubled virtually overnight. While residents of the NHLD were accustomed to an influx of visitors each summer, this situation was different. The refugees from urban terrorism were in the NHLD to stay.

The influx of refugees stressed the infrastructure of the NHLD, as schools, hospitals, police and fire services struggled to cope with a much larger resident population. The newcomers brought new demands, new needs, and new jobs. The NHLD was more crowded than usual in the summer of 2010. Pressure increased on all natural resources of the region.

Social conflicts intensified through 2010 and on into 2011. While local residents mostly empathized with the newcomers, they were also wary about changes to their way of life. The refugees brought with them new ideas and different values that were not always consistent with the outlook of the local residents. All levels of government struggled to cope with the changes in the NHLD by providing infrastructure and economic support for the new residents, and helping the NHLD to assimilate the new residents. There was significant turnover as some of the refugees left for other areas that were closer to family and friends. Fearful of future terrorist attacks, many of the former urban dwellers chose to make a new life in the NHLD. The population flux over the next several years and uncertainty about future population numbers made it even more difficult for decision-makers to administer changes. The transition was difficult, but gradually progress was made.

As part of an expanded war on terrorism, the nation drew more heavily on the resources of the NHLD. The NHLD became a crucial source of fresh water, as radioactive contamination from the dirty bomb had forced closure of Lake Michigan for municipal water supplies. Eventually the radioactive contamination spread to the downstream Great Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario, causing the U.S. and Canada to draw more heavily on water supplies from the highlands of the Great Lakes region. Great Lakes fish stocks were also contaminated. Aquaculture developed in the NHLD to provide fish for national and international markets. With aquaculture came water pollution and disease problems. The WDNR restricted aquaculture to the lakes lower in watersheds, while the less polluted lakes higher in watersheds were engineered for water extraction. The state authorized commercial deer harvest for the first time in 2014. Forest management and tree harvest intensified. The rapid increase in new residents led to the rapid development of a strict system of regulations.

The reservation was also struggling to deal with the effects of resource stresses. In some respects, the Lac du Flambeau were able to manage their business affairs and natural resources in ways that were separated from the pressures from outside the Reservation. However, through the interconnectedness of the hydrologic system and increased air and noise pollution in the area, tribal lands and waters were under increasing environmental pressures. While the tribal economy grew faster, air pollution, water pollution, changing climate and shifting water tables forced the tribe to devote more resources to environmental management and mitigation.

By 2027, in the year-round population of the NHLD was more than double the population in 2000. Most lived in a city sprawling from Rhinelander to Merrill along the Wisconsin River, where many worked in light industry or service sectors of the economy. The refugees were assimilated in an economic expansion driven by relocation of economic activity from other cities, including Chicago which would remain uninhabitable for decades. Some of the low-lying lakes were used for aquaculture, with associated water quality problems. Farther upland, watersheds were managed to protect water supplies and generate forest products, fish and cranberries. Although the NHLD was more urbanized than in 2002, elements of the traditional Northwoods values were found in the smaller communities north of the urban center. Fish and game harvests were controlled more rigidly than in 2002, but people still enjoyed fishing and hunting in the smaller upland lakes and more remote forests of the NHLD. Outdoor recreation was a smaller part of the economy. Recreational ecosystems had been replaced by working ecosystems.