| BASELINE | 1: ANAHEIM NORTH | 2: WALLEYE COMMONS | 3: NORTHWOODS QUILT | 4: REFUGEE REVOLUTION |

Walleye Commons

Scenario Images: Immediate right: NHLD landscape showing four representative lakes.
Far right: Cutaway views of the four lakes.

As businesses failed and tourism declined, people visited cottages less and less-frequently, and properties were sold. People left the region.

High in the watershed, forest fires reduced forest cover around upland lakes. Wildlife remain, but few tourists visit.

Isolated lakes have had their surrounding forest reduced by fire, and some of the original cottages have not been kept up by their owners. Fish populations have recovered and there is some nature tourism.

Tourism is centered around Lac du Flambeau, as people visit the reservation to learn about the Ojibwa way of life. A museum and sweat lodges provide novel experiences for tourists.

Abandoned development and poorly maintained roads have left the larger lakes resembling a gradually recovering junkyard. However, the lakes now contain a variety of undesirable species.

Residents who remain regret the lower incomes and lack of convenient shopping but enjoy having the region to themselves.

In the early 2000s, regulations in the NHLD were rolled back. State government, crippled by financial crisis, removed many shoreland management regulations and could not afford to enforce others. County boards removed many building restrictions. Some landowners welcomed the increased flexibility. On many lakes, however, conflict arose over large shoreline construction projects that impacted all property owners on the lake. Some lake associations tried to standardize practices, but they were unable to enforce rules. Battles over the character of the shoreline increasingly went to court where settlement took years of expensive litigation.

Along with this social disruption, the effects of the changing environment resulted in the loss of business for resorts, restaurants and bars. Snowmobiling and cross-country skiing diminished as winters became warmer, shorter and less snowy. Summer weather was unusually dry and after massive insect outbreaks killed extensive areas of forest in 2009-2010, a surprising series of extensive forest fires destroyed homes and resorts, leading to further declines in tourism. Deer hunting had all but vanished from the NHLD by 2010, due to the spread of chronic wasting disease. Fishing declined for several reasons, including excessive harvest, deterioration of shoreline habitat, and spread of rainbow smelt and rusty crayfish. In 2009-2012, a series of massive blooms of a newly arrived toxic cyanobacterium sickened swimmers and caused massive fish kills on lakes in the Minocqua area. The stresses were not as severe on tribal lands and lakes, due to responsive management by the tribes.

These ecological and social crises led to a number of attempts by individual groups to organize better ways of managing the landscape. However, despite some initial successes at creating new plans, no effective action was taken. Attempts at innovative management were frequently bottled up in litigation.

The cycle of crisis and failure led to a spiraling decline in tourism and migration from the NHLD. New retirees chose to live in places that were warmer, friendlier, or offered better outdoor recreation. Although long-time residents chose to remain in the region, a lack of economic opportunities led to the steady out-migration of young people. As people left, property values and the tax base declined, diminishing the ability of counties and towns to maintain roads and provide services. Teachers were laid off and schools deteriorated. The increasingly rundown nature of the NHLD further discouraged tourism. Many people in the tourist industry gave up and relocated.

The people at Lac du Flambeau, however, wanted to stay. Casino revenues declined, but some of the profits were used to buy checkerboarded tracts of land within the reservation boundaries at favorable prices. Counties were willing to sanction land sales, despite losses in tax revenue, because they needed immediate economic relief. The Lac du Flambeau tribal members continued to expand their land holdings. Although economic decline hit the reservation hard in some ways, the cultural revival of the late 20th century continued. An expanding network of Native American cultural connections combined with an increase in cultural tourism provided essential support to the tribe. The population of tribal members living on the reservation was increasing as off-reservation members returned because of job opportunities.

In 2027, the resident population of the NHLD was much smaller than the population in 2000, and about the same as the population of the region in 1900. There were far fewer summer visitors than in 2000. The Native American representation had grown from 10% to about 40% of the population. Through persistence and innovation, a Native American cultural renaissance was underway. With it came different ways of living with the land and lakes. Vegetation was slowly recovering from the fires, and the deer herd was slowly rebuilding. Experimental management had re-established excellent fishing on some lakes. Over the NHLD as a whole, fish communities were variable, with novel mixes of native and introduced species. Toxic algae blooms still occurred on some of the lakes, but water quality was slowly getting better. Although the economy was much smaller than it was in 2000, many residents felt that their rural lifestyle and the gradually improving environment of the NHLD more than compensated for their low incomes.