| BASELINE | 1: ANAHEIM NORTH | 2: WALLEYE COMMONS | 3: NORTHWOODS QUILT | 4: REFUGEE REVOLUTION |

Baseline

Scenario Images: Baseline (2003-2007). NHLD landscape showing four representative lakes with cutaway views to the right of each lake.

Lakes within a region are often very different from each other. Here, we illustrate four lakes from high to low elevation on the landscape. The highest lakes are fed by rainwater and groundwater, while the lowest lakes are connected by streams. Lakes higher in the landscape tend to be smaller and farther away from roads and other human impacts. Lakes lower in the landscape are larger and more developed, closer to roads and settlements.

There are plenty of lakes where people can fish and enjoy nature. Wildlife is abundant around the more remote lakes. Lakes in the NHLD are scattered with small cabins and new, larger homes.

The Lac du Flambeau nation is experiencing economic growth, stimulated by revenues from the casino. Young families are coming back to stay.

Residents and tourists enjoy many outdoor activities such as boating, fishing and jet skiing. The region is changing rapidly.

At the dawn of the 21st century, northern Wisconsin (specifically, the NHLD) was a good place to live or visit. There were diverse and beautiful lakes, rich forests, good people, and just enough stores to get what people needed without having a lot of what they don’t want. But the traditional Northwoods environment was changing, as it had changed over the past decades. In the decade from 1990 – 2000 population grew by 15%, and property values doubled. During this time, there was an increase in the number of second homes in the area, as well as an increase in the size and extravagance of those homes. Despite the stock market decline and recession in the early years of the 2000’s, property values continued to increase in the NHLD at a faster rate than in Wisconsin as a whole. Many retirees moved into the area. Health care improved. Development of service-oriented businesses increased, including sorts of businesses normally found in bigger cities, such as gourmet coffee shops and delicatessens.

On the Lac du Flambeau reservation, the casino brought new wealth. The number of tribal residents increased as tribal members returned to participate in the growing economy, and young people stayed because jobs were available. The number of pupils in the Lac du Flambeau Public School increased even as the school-age population in most of the NHLD declined. Living resources – fish and game – on tribal lands were flourishing.

Unlike in the past, the NHLD felt like it was filling up. There were confrontations in county boards over land use and shoreline regulations. Communication was poor between non-resident lakeshore property owners and local residents. The non-resident lakeshore owners did not vote in the NHLD and sometimes felt that they were subject to taxation without representation. Permanent residents of the NHLD were often less wealthy than the lakeshore owners, and felt that they provided services that the non-residents took for granted.

Over the years, the environment had been changing. Weather was more variable. Warm, wet winters reduced skiing and snowmobiling. There was debate about whether ATVs could or should fill the economic niche once filled by snowmobiles. There were conflicts between jet-ski lovers and haters. There were disagreements about how much of the landscape should be devoted to loud and motorized versus quiet and muscle-powered recreation activities. Invasive species ranging from weedy plants to rusty crayfish and rainbow smelt transformed local ecosystems. Removal of woody habitat from nearshore areas increased the vulnerability of lakes to intensive fishing. Game fish populations declined. Hatcheries became more important for maintaining fisheries, but also brought risk of disease. Many residents were unhappy about the replacement of old businesses – lodges, restaurants, and stores – by chains from outside the NHLD.

Stresses intensified when, as had long been planned, the road from southern Wisconsin to Minocqua was expanded into a four-lane highway to improve access during 2005. As expected, easy access brought more tourists and more part-time and full-time residents. Many factors explained the attractions of the traditional Northwoods area at this time: outdoor recreation, wildlife, fishing, rural friendliness, easy access from nearby cities, and fears of urban living deriving from an increased perception of risks associated with terrorism and war. However, the region was unable to assimilate these new people in the same way as it had in the past. There were no new home sites, lake front property was increasingly costly, and there were occasional traffic jams in towns. Increased tensions in politics, business, on the trails, and on lakes led to a general feeling that something had to change. But what should change? While local people and temporary visitors agreed that they loved the traditional Northwoods environment and that its essence was disappearing, there was little agreement about how and if those trends could be changed.